An annual presentation by Benedict Evans, exploring macro and strategic trends in the tech industry.

The implications of today’s great new networked infrastructures – the Internet and the Cloud – still exceed our comprehension. Their hyper-connectivity plants the seeds for power laws – the capture of a large percentage of returns by a small percentage of companies – to form, leading to winner-takes-most dynamics in more and more markets, many of which are still germinating.

How many billionaires are there in the United States? There is no definitive count. Most estimates put the number well below 1,000–with 927 being by far the highest estimate we have seen. Whatever the precise number, given the power of compounding, there should be many times the number of billionaires in this country than there are today.

Perhaps in response to my recent tweet, I have seen some people on Twitter, include some investors that I respect and admire, suggesting that a stock you own being down 50% means you are de facto wrong. I’m going to respectfully disagree with this as a universal statement.

Presentation by Oakcliff Capital's Bryan Lawrence at the Grant's Conference, October 19 2021

Founded in 2020 by Spencer Walsh, Kinesic Capital LLC is a boutique investment advisor managing a single, concentrated, public equity strategy. Kinesic searches globally for the best risk-adjusted return opportunities within the technology and consumer sectors.